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Russia could see 1-4% drop in GDP in 2009 - top banker
15:34
Russia's GDP will grow by 1-2% in the best case scenario and could decline by 1-4% in the worst-case scenario next year, the chairman of the MDM-Bank board of directors said on Monday.
MDM-Bank, one of Russia's top 30 banks, announced early in December a merger with the URSA bank, also one of the country's 30 largest banking institutions. Problems with liquidity have prompted a wave of consolidations in Russia's banking sector amid the global financial crisis.
"The bottom line presumption is that 2009 will see the deepest economic crisis in developed countries and the world economy as a whole. This means that all developments prior to this can be regarded as preparation for the crisis," Oleg Vyugin said.
Vyugin, who served as Russian deputy finance minister in 1996-1999, first deputy chairman of the Central Bank of Russia in 2002-2004, and head of the Federal Financial Markets Service in 2004-2007, said Russia would see its smallest net export figures in 2009 as the prices of all raw material commodities exported by Russia were expected to hit record lows next year.
Russia's Economic Development Ministry earlier said the country's GDP was expected to grow 3-3.5% in 2009. Similar forecasts for Russia were made by the World Bank and the IMF.
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin earlier said Russia would see GDP growth of 6.8-6.9%, industrial production growth of 4.8%, and 13% inflation for 2008, against a target of 11.8%.
